Some Risks of China’s Dual-Use Export Ban China’s recent decision to impose a dual-use export ban targeting Japan is often discussed in terms of supply chains, technology controls, and security risks. However, beyond the immediate economic impact, this policy carries a less obvious but potentially more strategic risk : its indirect effects on Taiwan–Japan relations. This article explores three structural risks embedded in the design of the ban. 1. Taiwan-to-Japan exports may fall into a gray zone Although the export ban is formally directed only at Japan , its scope becomes ambiguous when Taiwan is involved. From China’s official perspective, Taiwan is not treated as a fully separate political entity. As a result, dual-use goods manufactured or exported from Taiwan—such as electronic components, semiconductor-related hardware, or even consumer-grade PC parts—can be framed as Chinese-origin technologies routed through Taiwan . This creates a situation where: • Taiwan exporting dual-...

Relax Is Better Than Impatience Introduction All humans face the end of life sooner or later. But in most cases, later is better than sooner . A longer life usually allows more learning, more correction, and more understanding than a short one. The same logic often applies to societies and conflicts. The US–China Conflict The US–China conflict is becoming increasingly intense. The United States tends to act quickly and prefers rapid, decisive moves. China has historically been capable of enduring long-term pressure, but recently it also appears to be shifting toward faster, more immediate responses. When two actors both favor speed, their styles begin to match. As a result, the pace of confrontation accelerates. This acceleration heats up the world itself. And when the world becomes too hot, it naturally begins to seek cooling. Impatience Often Causes Mistakes From personal experience, impatience frequently leads to mistakes. Rushed decisions reduce the space for reflection and correc...

Disclaimer: This article reflects my personal opinion and observation, not an official or institutional view. Global Castling: How the U.S. and China Prepare Their Strategic Defenses In chess, castling is a move that serves two purposes: to protect the king and to reposition the rook for future attacks. It is both defensive and offensive—an elegant form of preparation before real conflict begins. Today, a similar logic seems to be unfolding on the geopolitical board. The American Castling The United States appears to be rearranging its alliance pieces before the next phase of confrontation. Its “king,” once directly engaged in the front lines of global trade wars, is quietly stepping back, while its “rooks” — Japan and India — are being placed forward. • Japan acts as a shield , institutionalizing trust, rule-based diplomacy, and defense integration in East Asia. • India plays the mobile rook , offering a flexible counterweight across the Indo-Pacific, Africa, and even in t...

East Asia Scenarios in the Event of a Taiwan Emergency I considered several possible scenarios for East Asia if a Taiwan emergency were to occur. To explain them, I use three lenses: Mathematics (Math) , Chess Metaphors (Chess) , and the English language (English) . Scenario A: Russia Directly Participates in the East Asia War Math Russia : Japan = North Korea : South Korea or Russia + North Korea = Japan + South Korea Chess In this scenario, Russia cannot fully concentrate on the East Asia front. If Russia acts like a Knight , it would strike South Korea, jumping over obstacles. If Russia acts like a Bishop , it would target Japan, attacking diagonally. However, due to limited military resources, it seems unlikely that Russia can play the Bishop role. English Russia shifts part of its military forces to the Far East and engages directly. Scenario B: Russia Supports North Korea in the East Asia War Math Russia + North Korea = South Korea + Japan Chess Here, Russia acts as a...