Creating favorite opinions

  Legal Online CASINO: USA share markets Background I was interested in this news. Tradeweb to extend trading hours the day after US election https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/tradeweb-extend-trading-hours-day-after-us-election-2024-10-31/ My thought Share markets has turned to be Legal Online CASINO. USA share markets’ rival will be real/online CASINO. How to invest good companies? Venture capital is the way, not to bet money on share markets. What will happen in share markets? Current share markets are not the field to invest good companies. They are the field to play “Old lady game”. Rich sells shares in high price and poor buy a small amount the shares. After stock markets crash, Rich buy the shares little by little in low price to collect them. This is the system, which is alike to a hamster wheel. One idea I have read the book “Just Keep Buying”. The book only told that Just Keep Buying the shares. I can write Python code and use GCP, so that t...

Simple calculation Simple calculation Background Bank Of Japan(BOJ) has 7% of Tokyo Prime stock market shares. The shares book value is 34 trillion yen. Tokyo stock market falls today Sum of Tokyo Prime stock was 962 trillion yen at July 31, 2024. Index of Tokyo Prime stock was between 1400-1450 at July 31, 2024. Today’s index was 1150. In fact, 962:1425=x:1150. X is 776. At Aug 5, 2024, sum of Tokyo Prime stock was 776 trillion yen. In fact, BOJ has 54 trillion yen of Tokyo Prime stock. What do I want to say? If index of Tokyo Prime stock falls down under 723, then BOJ bankrupts or becomes insolvent. 1150 * 54 / 34 = 723. If index of Tokyo Prime stock falls more 40% than today, Japan economy ends. Caution This simple calculation may include mistakes which I don’t know.

  “Cultures and Investment” Warren Buffet knows the existence of culture difference between USA and Japan. https://www.reuters.com/business/buffett-talks-succession-berkshires-future-annual-meeting-2024-05-04/ We tend to try to know what the difference, but to know the existence is more important. The world has several religions, cultures and languages. Knowing each other is good, but knowing the existence of differences is better. Recently, I started Nikkei Future trading with my secret code. Because I don’t know USA markets, so that I started in Japan market.

  2024/4/8.  Secret Code These days, I wrote some Python codes about searching correlation between Nasdaq and Commodities. The latest score is 0.95189 now(2024/4/8). I don’t open this code because I will use it for my trading assistant program. I hope I can be rich with the program… (Additional things...) I changed my mind, but it is only small... This is the result picture between Predicted model vs Actual Nikkei 225 Close price. 2024/4/17.  Additional result I lost $200(¥30000)... My bad point is too much believing my thought...

 Intersting, but I doubt... Correlation 0.934 is too high! <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/0054bce1cdbdba6ad467451ca5421b1a.js"></script>

Nasdaq,,, done Correlation result is 0.8305...   I'll write test code... Nasdaq = Cacao * (Copper + Silver + Gold) - Sugar * Coffee main.py <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/6efaa2dd834a1ff9aea3138a50fc9b15.js"></script> validation.py <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/8e309e65b0aae4213464fffafb78bd30.js"></script>

 Nikkei225 vs Cacao, Copper & Sugar Correlation is 0.687. It is great, I did great work! <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/34bfe423b3c73f2b17df0f68243b4caa.js"></script>

 Nasdaq corr. 0.6597

 Nasdaq Correlation with Cacao, Copper and Sugar Nasdaq = (Cacao * 0.586) * (Copper ^ 2.528) - (Sugar ^ 3.965) Correlation score is 0.64978. <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/6eb89fb0dc310df733ddab2491a55e72.js"></script>

 I admit ChatGPT as great. New Python code with ChatGPT4's help, shows correlation 0.636. I got this result in short time... ChatGPT and Machine Learning are great... Nasdaq = Cacao^1.15 + Copper^6.4 - Suger^2.698 I could not find it... <script src="https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/6aa4e3d9343163f01d7bcb845edc9297.js"></script>

I applied to Nasdaq in below Python code. The result correlation is 0.5329... Not so bad... Before each prices were powered, it is important that Normaraization. 2024/4/3. Additional result is 0.5466. It is better. 2024/4/3. Furthermore Additional result is 0.5505. Hummm. Good. 2024/4/2. Python code 2024/4/3. Python code 2024/4/3. Python code 2nd

  (cacao_close ** 0.31) + (copper_close ** 0.46) - (suger_close ** 0.37) This shows highest correlation with Nikkei 225. The value is 0.631. I did great work! I uploaded whole code in below github. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/VSNikkei

  2024/3/28.  Article 9 Article 9 of the Japan Constitution has been unchanged for over 70 years from WW2. Article 9 is written about abandonment of army. Regardless of the intentions of the U.S. government at that time, Japan people have keep on protecting Article 9. Liberal Democratic Party in Japan(Jimin party) have keep on staying at the center of Japan politics over 70 years from WW2. In other words, Jimin party have protected Article 9. In view of it, Jimin party won’t change Article 9. There may be national election in near future, but it doesn’t matter whether Jimin party wins or not about changing Article 9. If Jimin party wins, Article 9 won’t be changed. If Jimin party loses, next ruling party can’t change Article 9 because of weakness of political foundation. Weakness of political foundation is due to its voter support base and the presence of some organizations. New ruling party won’t have large support from its voters, so that national referendum fo...

  2024/3/15.  Nissan and Honda I saw this news. Rivas Nissan and Honda sign MoU on EV partnership https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/honda-nissan-sign-mou-comprehensive-ev-cooperation-nhk-reports-2024-03-15/ This partnership looks alliance of the weak companies. In addition, I felt that Japan gov assisted for the partnership. I have thought to buy Nissan shares, but I stopped because I felt Nissan was not good to invest. Japan gov seems to prefer market oligopoly by 2 companies. For example, airlines for JAL and ANA, telecommunication for NTT and KDDI(Softbank is outsider). In view of the tendency, Japanese car companies will converge to TOYOTA and Nissan&Honda. 

  2024/3/5.   Who will pull Joker card? I watched the news that USA stock markets hit new high, and then Japan stock markets hit new high, too. I imagined who will pull Joker card in old lady. Japanese new investors(?) will be the last buyers in USA and Japan stock markets. They prefer to buy USA and Japan stocks in NISA. NISA:Nippon individual savings account https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_individual_savings_account They will keep to buy USA stocks until USA stocks market crash. The crash will happen around 2 or 3 months before/after Fed rate cut. After crash, some of them will do loss cut USA stocks, then will buy Japan stocks. Japan stocks market will crash at that time.

  2023/12/31.  Stock investment or Company investment I read some books about probability. I thought that the great investor, Warren Buffett might have invested to good companies, not to companies whose stock prices were likely to rise. This may be the principle. Investment to Good company Bad Company High stock price Normal or Not bad Bad Low stock price Good Normal or Not good There are several ways to find and measure which good or bad company is. The important point is to find good company, not company whose stock price is likely to rise.

  2023/6/5.  Copper is more than Gold or Silver in Japan? 2 I researched about the relationship between copper and Nikkei 225. I wrote below codes. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper2 Nikkei 225 price seems to have relationship with copper power 3 price. Nikkei 225 = (Copper price ^3) * some times If you like this result, I will be happy. 2023/6/6. Additionally, Copper price has more relationship with Nikkei 225 than Copper price power 3. I was wrong. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper3/Nikkei225vsCopper3 2023/6/10. Additionally, I did cluster analysis to the result. This is interesting. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/Nikkei225vsCopper4

  2023/5/27.   Copper is more than Gold or Silver in Japan? Recently, I searched about relationship between Nikkei225 and commodities. I found that copper’s price has higher relationship to Nikkei225 than Gold or Silver prices. From 2015-01-01 to 2023-05-26, relationships are  Platinum:0.171 Gold:0.736 Silver:0.745 Copper:0.787. Above is result of my codes. https://github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/PythonAlmostEveryday/tree/main/CorrelationBTWGoldAndNikkei Honestly, I worried to open this result and codes. But I don’t have enough money to buy/sell stocks, so it is no need to worry...

  2023/5/8.     The end of $ The end of $ is coming soon. In my mind, $’s power is decreasing faster. In my brain images, ¥(JPY) & $ are losing their colors. I watched about US debt ceiling problem, and think about future. Will the debt be solved soon or 100 years later? Soon is obviously wrong , but 100 years later is absolutely wrong. 100 years later, the debt will be bigger and bigger. For the debt, USA government has to approach principal solutions, but it doesn’t nor won’t. In 20 years ago, there weren’t any alternative to $. But now, there are a lot of digital coins. So I started trading digital coins with Python. There is another problem that I am concerning, the capitalism’s system limit. Capitalism needs regularly economic depression. I imagine that older people could earn $ which would have higher value, but younger can’t. So if younger people want to be rich, there may revolution of money. It happened by Bitcoin. In my opinion, Bitcoin will be digital gold,...