Skip to main content

Correlation between NASDAQ price, Corn and Gold(Corr=0.945)

 I wrote Python code which shows Correlation between NASDAQ price, Corn and Gold(Corr=0.945). Corn and Gold are best mix I have found. https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/a1a9b073f6cd6dacb7eb1ea871d8fd3c I changed some important parts. https://gist.github.com/Kouhei-Takagi/5becaf7c3a24d63ac9c56856e81297f2

Japanese Government Bond is Bubble

Japanese Government Bond(JGB) is Bubble
1.Definition
Bubble:
used to refer to a good or fortunate situation that is isolated from reality or unlikely to last.
(From google search ”bubble definition”)

2.Situation 

This is JGB’s 10 years yield chart.  
This graph is JAPAN general government net debt in percent of GDP.
Debt is increasing, but yield is decreasing. This situation include some contradictions.


3. Opinion about ending
JGB Bubble may be next big problem. And it will collapse in 2019-2023.

Japanese banks is suffering by low yields and they are surviving by selling past assets.
The influence of low yields has been taking rich people’s interest money.
Economic deflation was the help for low interest, because the deflation was the reason to serve money in bank. 

And I read the book “五輪後の日本経済” by Sayuri Shirai who was member of Bank Of Japan.
She wrote about IMF that they know Japanese government can’t rebuild their finances.
IMF also told her that Japanese economy will survive till their debt will be 200% of GDP.

I estimate from the graph, the net debt in percent of GDP will reach 200% after 2019.

Before Tokyo olympic or after it, JGB problem will end. It is not so long time.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Cheaper work

2016/12/29. Cheaper works: Hard competition makes expensive work cheaper. In Japan, there are some people who thinks there are a lot of workers, and they are exchangeable easily. This thought can't stand on human populations decreasing society. And in this society, the flow that provides products cheaper and cheaper cannot keep. Now, Japanese society is standing on that thought, and Japanese system hardly stands. This is by the patience of Japanese. When the breaking point of Japanese system comes, the counter of patience will keeps long time. And I think that communism never comes in Japan. Because Karl Marx doesn't think about human populations decreasing...

None feedback

2016/12/29. None feedback from others in Japanese company Feedback is not always visible or sound , especially the fact of feedback is hidden by various suits. And in Japanese company, I often see the scene that ignorance to the people who did careless mistakes. Others don't say anything about the careless mistakes in front of the person, but in background, others speak ill of the person. This is none feedback. None feedback from others is very bad feedback, but in Japanese company, it is often. Why none feedback happens? In my experience, there are some reasons. When the person who made mistakes is upper than others, others want the person to fall out. When the person is equal level to others, others want the person not to promote. When the person is lower level, others want to make the person the targets for inner circle. I rethink that none feedback in company is bad signal for organization... None feedback happens when the company is bad statements!!!