The LDP’s Landslide Victory and the Possibility of an End to the Ukraine War (A Structural Analysis)
The LDP’s Landslide Victory and the Possibility of an End to the Ukraine War (A Structural Analysis) Premise • Japan’s House of Representatives election does not directly determine the course of the Ukraine war. • However, it can indirectly influence whether the war shifts into a termination phase . 1. LDP Landslide Victory = Fixation of Japan’s Political and Military Trajectory • The LDP’s victory solidifies, over the medium to long term, policy directions such as: • Increased defense spending • Deeper military integration with the United States • Greater flexibility in constitutional interpretation • This means that Japan is increasingly perceived as “a country that is not radical, but is steadily militarizing.” 2. Changes in the Strategic Environment from Russia’s Perspective • From Russia’s point of view: • West: attrition caused by the Ukraine war • South: instability in the Middle East and surrounding regions • East: a fixed and institu...